It’s never too soon to plan ahead

Here’s a quick summary of future events we should all plan for:
a future timeline .

453 extrasolar planets, and counting

We’re fortunate indeed to live in an age of discovery. Consider this continually updated list of all the planets that astronomers have discovered outside of our solar system to date, sorted by date of discovery since the 1990′s. (You can filter or resort it by other criteria.) Truly amazing, and more so every year.

A Meta-Story

Once upon a time there were three story-generating algorithms. The first story-generating algorithm wrote a long and complicated story, full of twists and turns, in which the second algorithm appeared and wrote a story. The second algorithm’s story was shorter, and not so complicated, but it featured the third algorithm in action. And the third algorithm wrote this story.

Progress on the Drake equation

The Drake equation (named after the astronomer who first wrote it) proposes a way to estimate the number of alien civilizations in our galaxy with which we might communicate. The estimate is the product of a bunch of very poorly known factors. These include the fraction of stars with planets and the fraction of those planets conducive to life. Astronomers are making great progress in discovering planets outside our solar system, which is intrinsically important and also may bear on these factors in the Drake equation. For example, a new report described by the Royal Astronomical Society seems to show that more than one in a hundred white dwarf stars have some asteroids or rocky planets that would give rise to infrared light detected by the Spitzer Space Telescope. Since white dwarf stars are one of the likely endpoints of stellar evolution, this fact may provide a minimum for the number of ordinary hydrogen-burning stars that have rocky “terrestrial” planets. One of the study’s authors suggests the answer is at least 1% to 3%.

A theory of history

I’ve been reading “War and Peace and War” by Peter Turchin. One of his central arguments is that societies and especially empires are characterized by a changing degree of social cohesion, that represents how willing individuals are to cooperate and sacrifice for the greater good of their society. This degree of cohesion, which Turchin calls “asabiya”, can even be given a numerical value. The dynamics by which asabiya changes depends on the amount of inter-society conflict in a spatially nearby area. High conflict leads (through group-level selection) to the emergence of high-cohesion groups, so that new empires are born on the spatial boundaries of old ones. Turchin reinterprets a great deal of world history (retelling many stories along the way) from this perspective. The result is an attempt at “cliodynamics”, a dynamical theory of history.

I might identify “asabiya” as a member of the “activation” cluster of values in Sapientism. Activation can be defined at the individual or group level, and asabiya would be a form of group-level activation. However, besides activation there are two other primary values, knowledge and ethics, which must be balanced with activation in Sapientism. Asabiya knows no such restriction of course, since it is intended to be a theory of the often brutal history of empires. On the other hand Turchin points out that equally high asabiya groups such as Sparta and early Rome had very different levels of ultimate imperial success depending on their ability to welcome new groups into the fold, and become cosmopolitan or “meta-ethnic” societies. Rome absorbed many external groups and influences; Sparta didn’t, and was far less successful in expansion.

A new great university?

Could the Arabian peninsula awake from its long medieval slumber? Perhaps so! An optimistic sign is the serious thought and great resources being put behind a new university in Saudi Arabia: KAUST. The King Abdullah University of Science and Technology starts with a laudable burst of optimism and good intentions for world service and the advancement of knowledge, in a video vision statement. World-class academics and universities are lending a hand in starting up KAUST. The real test of a Saudi Arabian university will be whether it promotes advances in science and the frontiers of fundamental knowledge , rather than simply training engineers for industry. We can be optimistic about this new university.

Does knowledge diminish beauty?

Science as an aesthetic spoilsport:

“Arcturus” is his other name -
I’d rather call him “Star.”
It’s very mean of Science
To go and interfere!

I pull a flower from the woods -
A monster with a glass
Computes the stamens in a breath
And has her in a “class”!
…
- Emily Dickinson (full text here)

Or consider this example: